What New Jersey and Virginia's governor's races could mean for Democrats

Democrats suffered a knockout punch in this month's elections. New Jersey's and Virginia's off-year gubernatorial elections in 2025 offer them their first chances to get off the mat.

Both states have become reliably blue in federal races, but President-elect Donald Trump narrowed his margins in each state, and Democrats are unable to take anything for granted as they undergo a postelection reckoning over their national brand. New Jerseyans haven't granted one party more than eight straight years in the governor's mansion in over five decades, and Republican Glenn Youngkin rode into Richmond just three years ago.

That makes the contests to replace term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, in New Jersey and Youngkin, who can't run for two consecutive terms, in Virginia key barometers for Democrats' ability to find their way out of the political wilderness ahead of the midterm elections in 2026.

"I think both these are going to be competitive races. Democrats know to take nothing for granted right now," said Jared Leopold, a former Democratic Governors Association staffer based in Virginia. "Gubernatorial races have always been the path back for a party out of power, and 2025 is no different. So, this is going to be a huge opportunity for the Democratic Party."

Both races are in the early stages, with candidates still throwing their hats into the ring.

New Jersey Reps. Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, former state Senate President Stephen Sweeney and New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller are among the Democrats running to replace Murphy. Rep. Abigail Spanberger is the top Democrat running in Virginia and is widely considered a party powerhouse in the state.

Republicans are also sifting through their own candidates. Former GOP gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli, who fell short of unseating Murphy by about 3 points in 2021, is running again in New Jersey, as are other candidates who are casting themselves as more aligned with and antagonistic toward Trump's brand. And Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is running for the governor's mansion with Youngkin's endorsement.

But it's Democrats who are on the outside looking in these days, having lost the White House and Senate this month, and eager to bounce back.

Vice President Kamala Harris' loss to Trump has set off recriminations among Democrats that the party has lost touch with working-class voters and instead reinforced an elitist, out-of-touch brand that was so unpalatable that voters instead opted for a twice-impeached former president who had been convicted of 34 felonies in New York.

Warning signs loomed this month specifically in New Jersey and Virginia. Trump stunned when he became the first Republican presidential candidate in over 30 years to win racially diverse Passaic County in New Jersey. And he made inroads in northern Virginia, the suburban machine of Democrats' statewide advantage.

Many of the leading Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia have sought to create distance with the party's left-flank and prioritized affordability over social issues, a possibly effective strategy after voters prioritized economic issues and Trump blanketed the airwaves with ads attacking Harris over her position on transgender issues.

Now, they just have to convince voters that they're not like the national Democratic bogeymen they've heard so much about.

"I think they will be talking the talk. The question is, how can they convince voters that they are walking the walk, and how can they convince voters that this is the centerpiece of their campaign?" said Micah Rasmussen, who served as press secretary for former New Jersey Gov. Jim McGreevey, a Democrat.

"If you can convince voters that you've gotten the message and that you need to focus not so much what you want to focus on but you want to focus on what the voters want you to focus on, that's what it's going to take," he added. "I certainly think, at this point, the candidates have gotten the message."

Democrats in both states have gotten something of a head start over their national counterparts.

Murphy's narrower-than-expected win over Ciattarelli in 2021 alarmed Democrats who had expected to coast in New Jersey but were instead rebuffed by voters' complaints about affordability in the high-tax state. And Youngkin's win in a state that President Joe Biden won by 10 points just a year earlier jolted Democrats there, too.

In hindsight, both results may have foreshadowed the post-COVID-19 economic frustrations that sunk Democrats this year.

Now, candidates are putting the economy first. "Let's make life more affordable for hardworking New Jerseyans, from health care to groceries to child care," Sherrill said in her announcement video. Spanberger touts efforts aimed at "lowering prescription drug prices" and "lowering costs and easing inflation."

Republicans, for their part, are feeling their oats.

While Trump won each swing state by narrow margins, he did sweep them, and he made notable gains among Democratic-friendly demographic groups and in blue states, including New Jersey and Virginia. And almost nothing is as unifying as winning.

"There's an opportunity for sure, and being unified, that's step one," Virginia-based GOP strategist Zack Roday said. "If your party sweeps the House, Senate and the White House, you want to try to just hold your serve downballot and compete, and I think we can actually compete to win at the top. Democrats have the advantage, but there's a lot around the coalition that could be united in both states that is really appealing to where the GOP is."

It's not all doom and gloom for Democrats, though.

Democrats performed well in off-year elections in 2017 after Trump's first win and in the 2018 midterm elections, and New Jerseyans in particular have traditionally been reluctant to elevate Republicans the year after a Republican wins the White House. And while Trump was able to juice the base and cut into his opponent's advantages, he still fell short in two states where Democrats retain voter registration edges.

"I don't think that anyone's sitting around panicking right now about where the election is. There's certainly work to do, but there's no panic," one senior New Jersey Democratic strategist said.

Trump could also supercharge Democrats' push to coalesce after their losses this month. His policy proposals, including banning travel from several Muslim-majority countries in 2017, infuriated the Democratic base, leading to Democratic successes in 2017 and 2018.

"It really started when Trump started doing really controversial, unpopular things, like the Muslim ban, and that's when you saw governors and people come together to fight back against him. My suspicion is that same trend will happen here, where the reality of Trump's policies will galvanize Democrats," Leopold said.

However, he added, for a party that's still smarting after its shortcomings this month, no race is considered safe, and Democrats will have their work cut out for them despite the friendly terrain.

Leopold noted that "2025 is a huge step on the path back for Democrats. We can lick our wounds for the rest of 2024, but come 2025, we got to get focused."