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Latest 538 Headlines

March 01

12 Super Tuesday primaries to watch in California and Alabama

The most intriguing races are for House and Senate.
March 01
Rep. Adam Schiff speaks to supporters outside the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees (IATSE) Union Hall, at the kickoff rally for his two week "California for All Tour," Feb. 11, 2023 in Burbank, Calif.
February 29

12 Super Tuesday primaries to watch in Texas and North Carolina

Get caught up on the most competitive Senate, House and governor races.
February 29
A woman arrives at an early voting polling site, Feb. 20, 2024, in San Antonio, Texas.
February 28

What to make of the protest votes in Michigan

Biden and Trump's easy victories masked discontent in both parties.
February 28
Biden and Trump's easy victories masked discontent in both parties.
February 28

What to make of the protest votes in Michigan | 538 Politics Podcast

Biden and Trump's easy victories masked discontent in both parties.
February 28
Biden and Trump's easy victories masked discontent in both parties.
February 28

Could Arab American and Muslim voters cost Biden the 2024 election?

They're a small voting bloc but could make the difference in Michigan.
February 28
Abbas Alawieh, spokesperson for Listen to Michigan, Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud and Layla Elabed, campaign manager for Listen to Michigan, speak to the press one day after the Michigan presidential primary, at Haraz Coffee House in Dearborn, Michigan, on February 28, 2024.
February 27

What 538's new primary polling averages say about 3 key Senate races

We're now aggregating polls of Senate, House and governor primaries.
February 27
538 has new primary polling averages for Senate races in California, Ohio, and West Virginia.
February 26

Two years into the war, American support for Ukraine is down

Plus, polls on Black History Month, the Supreme Court and more.
February 26
Welcome to Pollapalooza, 538's roundup of the latest polls.
February 25

After South Carolina loss, what is Nikki Haley's plan?

Haley may be hoping to make a point about the future of the GOP.
February 25
Without a clear path to the nomination, Haley may be hoping to make a point about the future of the GOP.
February 25

After South Carolina loss, what is Nikki Haley's plan? | 538 Politics Podcast

Without a clear path to the nomination, Haley may be hoping to make a point about the future of the GOP.
February 25
Without a clear path to the nomination, Haley may be hoping to make a point about the future of the GOP.
February 22

Overseas conflicts are sparking strife in US party politics

How the wars in Ukraine and Gaza could affect the 2024 election.
February 22
How the wars in Ukraine and Gaza are causing intraparty conflicts and what it means for the 2024 election.
February 22

Overseas conflicts are sparking strife in US party politics | 538 Politics Podcast

How the wars in Ukraine and Gaza are causing intraparty conflicts and what it means for the 2024 election.
February 22
How the wars in Ukraine and Gaza are causing intraparty conflicts and what it means for the 2024 election.
February 22

South Carolina's conservative electorate gives Trump a big edge

There's no home-court advantage for Haley in the GOP primary.
February 22
Donald Trump and Nikki Haley will face off in South Carolina's GOP primary on Feb. 24.
February 21

Which is the better 2024 predictor: polls or special elections?

Republicans hope the former, Democrats the latter. But it's complicated.
February 21
Both Republicans and Democrats can point to their own wins that could help them in 2024: Republicans can point to national polls that show former President Donald Trump leading over President Joe Biden; Democrats can point to the success the party has had in special elections.
February 20

Swing state Republican parties are in chaos. That could matter in November.

Leadership fights have roiled the GOP in Michigan, Arizona and Georgia.
February 20
Intraparty battles have troubled Republican state party leadership in Michigan, Arizona, and Georgia.
February 19

Trump suffers another legal setback. What risks his other cases pose.

Trump's legal jeopardy includes his first criminal case, set to start March 25.
February 19
Trump's legal jeopardy includes his first criminal case, set to start March 25.
February 19

What comes next in Trump's trials | 538 Politics Podcast

Trump's legal jeopardy includes his first criminal case, set to start March 25.
February 19
Trump's legal jeopardy includes his first criminal case, set to start March 25.
February 16

What the New York 3rd special election means for November

And why it's not a big deal that the polls were a little off.
February 16
Congressman-elect Tom Suozzi speaks to supporters after winning the special election for New York's 3rd congressional district during his election night event in Woodbury, New York, Feb. 13, 2024.
February 15

Even a losing presidential campaign can have benefits

Why the also-rans also ran.
February 15
By January, more candidates had dropped out of the Republican primary race for President than were still running
February 14

Democrats notch a win in the battle for the suburbs

Suozzi beats Pilip in New York's 3rd Congressional District.
February 14
Suozzi beats Pilip in New York's 3rd Congressional District.
February 14

Democrats notch a win in the battle for the suburbs | 538 Politics Podcast

Suozzi beats Pilip in New York's 3rd Congressional District.
February 14
Suozzi beats Pilip in New York's 3rd Congressional District.
February 12

Who will replace George Santos?

Democrat Tom Suozzi leads Republican Mazi Pilip in polls.
February 12
Democrat Tom Suozzi leads Republican Mazi Pilip in polls.
February 12

The political conversation about Biden's Age

And a preview of the special election to replace George Santos.
February 12
And a preview of the special election to replace George Santos.
February 12

The political conversation about Biden's Age | 538 Politics Podcast

And a preview of the special election to replace George Santos.
February 12
And a preview of the special election to replace George Santos.
February 12

How big of a factor will Biden's age be in the 2024 election?

Voters are worried about his mental acuity, but it's unlikely he'll step aside.
February 12
Welcome to 538's latest politics chat.
February 12

Why the election to replace George Santos is so competitive

New York's 3rd District could flip from red to blue.
February 12
Democratic congressional candidate for New York's 3rd district, Tom Suozzi, speaks to supporters as he campaigns in Bayside, N.Y., Feb. 10, 2024.
February 08

The data points that will explain the 2024 election | 538 Politics Podcast

We asked a dozen pollsters and experts for their thoughts.
February 08
We asked a dozen pollsters and experts for their thoughts.
February 05

The Tortured Pundits Department | 538 Politics Podcast

Is Taylor Swift turning young women into NFL fans and Biden voters?
February 05
Is Taylor Swift turning young women into NFL fans and Biden voters?
February 01

How Americans feel about the economy | 538 Politics Podcast

Trends that made Americans pessimistic are fading. Will their views change too?
February 01
Trends that made Americans pessimistic are fading. Will their views change too?
January 29

Will politics or policy win out at the border? | 538 Politics Podcast

A border security agreement is coming together, but former President Donald Trump may get in the way.
January 29
A border security agreement is coming together, but former President Donald Trump may get in the way.
January 24

The GOP primary is basically over | 538 Politics Podcast

The podcast crew recaps what happened in New Hampshire.
January 24
The 538 podcast crew recaps what happened in New Hampshire.

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