Sep 19
ABC Photo Illustration, Andrew Harnik/ Getty, Mario Tama / Getty
Polls show Harris gaining after the presidential debate
She's up to a 61-in-100 chance of winning, per the 538 forecast.
September 17, 2024Pro-Israel groups spent big to oust two Squad members in primaries
But they didn't splash cash to oppose all high-profile progressives.
September 17, 2024How to read political polls in 2024
Not all polls are created equal. Here's 538's guide to interpreting them.
September 16, 2024
Latest 538 Video
Latest 538 Headlines
2 hours ago
Can Harris win back Biden's Israel-Gaza critics?
Harris has a challenge, and an opportunity, to define her stance on the war.
2 hours ago
September 19
How Democrats could finally win North Carolina in 2024
Our first deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
September 19
September 18
Progressive organizations were forced to play defense in the 2024 primaries
But progressive candidates still won most of the open races they ran in.
September 18
September 18
Is the gender gap growing? | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik discuss how young women are more liberal and what that means for the future electorate.
September 18
September 18
Does the Taylor Swift effect include voting? | 538 Politics podcast
The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik discusses how Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris has affected voter registration and the presidential race.
September 18
September 18
What do voters think about political violence? | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik talk about the percentage of Americans open to a variety of manifestations, from protesting to more serious violence.
September 18
September 17
Make your picks on the 2024 Interactive Electoral Map
ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl explains how to make your predictions on the 2024 presidential race.
September 17
September 17
Polls show Harris gaining after the presidential debate
She's up to a 61-in-100 chance of winning, per the 538 forecast.
September 17
September 17
Pro-Israel groups spent big to oust two Squad members in primaries
But they didn't splash cash to oppose all high-profile progressives.
September 17
September 16
How to read political polls in 2024
Not all polls are created equal. Here's 538's guide to interpreting them.
September 16
September 13
Trump endorsed more Republicans in 2024 than ever before
The former president has taken over the traditional GOP endorsement apparatus.
September 13
September 12
How Taylor Swift's endorsement of Harris could change the election end game
Swift’s fans largely lean Democratic, but her support could boost engagement.
September 12
September 11
Early polls say Harris won the presidential debate
But it’s unclear how much, or whether, it will shift the race.
September 11
September 11
Why abortion was a bigger issue in the Harris-Trump debate | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 crew discusses how the issue of reproductive rights played a bigger role in the Harris-Trump debate compared to the previous debate with Trump and Biden.
September 11
September 11
How did the candidates perform at the debate? | 538 Politics podcast
ABC News politics reporter Brittany Shepherd shares insight into what surrogates said about the candidates' performance in the spin room after the debate.
September 11
September 11
Do Americans know Kamala Harris better after the debate? | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss whether Kamala Harris was able to define herself to Americans during the debate.
September 11
September 10
What polling says about key voting groups in the 2024 election
The 538 team discusses what polling reveals about young, older and first-time voters ahead of the November election.
September 10
September 10
What does economic data reveal about the November election? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley discuss the role economic sentiment could play in the 2024 presidential election.
September 10
September 10
6 primaries to watch in New Hampshire and Delaware
Both states pick their next governors this year.
September 10
September 09
What the polls say ahead of the Harris-Trump presidential debate
Americans think Harris will win, but she has ground to make up on key issues.
September 09
September 09
Customize our 2024 presidential election forecast
Pick the winner in a state to see how 538's presidential forecast would change.
September 09
September 07
What does the upcoming presidential debate mean for Harris? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the importance of Kamala Harris’s first presidential debate.
September 07
September 07
3 potential sources of polling error in the 2024 election | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke speaks with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about potential sources of error in polling.
September 07
September 06
The 2024 voting landscape is a recipe for confusion
High turnout and new voting rules could cause problems at the polls in November.
September 06
September 05
Can a smartphone app conduct political polls?
We clear up confusion over ActiVote, a prolific pollster with unique methods.
September 05
September 04
What issues are the most important to voters heading into November?
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about what issues are important to voters and which ones will become hot topics during election season.
September 04
September 04
How is Harris polling compared to Biden's 2020 performance? | 538 Politics Podcast
Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times talks about how Kamala Harris is performing among swing states and demographic groups.
September 04
September 04
Harris's candidacy has caused a surge in voter enthusiasm | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke speaks with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about how voter enthusiasm has shifted since Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee.
September 04
September 04
Can you guess how Americans feel about Harris's platform?
Test your knowledge of what the public thinks about the VP’s policies.
September 04
September 03
Is the Democratic Party a strong party?
Democrats' ouster of Biden shows political parties may still have some muscle.
September 03
August 30
Harris got a polling bounce before her convention, not after
Trump got a small boost after the RNC, but Harris's candidacy reset the race.
August 30
August 30
How the latest economic shifts could affect the presidential race
538's Galen Druke and Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times talk about potential economic changes that could impact how people vote in the 2024 presidential election.
August 30
August 30
How are Harris and Trump talking about the economy? | 538 Politics Podcast
Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times discusses how Democrats and Republicans are tackling issues like taxes and more on the campaign trail.
August 30
August 30
Economists are optimistic about the health of the economy | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke speaks with Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times about economic sentiment data leading up to the 2024 presidential election.
August 30
August 27
What can Washington state's primary tell us about November? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley talk about how Washington state's primary results could be an indication of a shift toward Democrats in the national House vote.
August 27
August 27
Can RFK Jr. win a contingent election? | 538 Politics Podcast
The 538 team discusses the likelihood of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. winning a contingent election, following his exit from the 2024 presidential race.
August 27
August 27
How public opinion has changed from previous elections | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley discuss Vice President Kamala Harris's differences from Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign.
August 27
August 23
Harris says she will 'fight for America's future' on final night of the DNC | 538
The crew reacts to the final night of the Democratic National Convention.
August 23
August 21
Chicago's young voters talk 2024 presidential election at the DNC
538 senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich speaks with three young voters from Chicago as the 2024 Democratic National Convention takes place.
August 21
August 21
The Obamas dominate night 2 of the DNC | 538 Politics Podcast
The crew reacts to night two of the Democratic National Convention
August 21
August 19
Do voters know what Harris stands for? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke discusses Harris' policy positions, or the lack thereof, with senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley, and whether this could be an advantage for her.
August 19
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