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Polls suggest that plenty of Americans aren’t closely following news of the potential shutdown.
Polls suggest that plenty of Americans aren’t closely following news of the potential shutdown.
Sep 29
ABC News Photo Illustration

Latest 538 Headlines

September 29

The government might shut down. Do Americans care?

We have fewer polls on the topic than in past shutdowns.
September 29
Polls suggest that plenty of Americans aren’t closely following news of the potential shutdown.
September 28

Who won the second Republican debate?

538 partnered with The Washington Post and Ipsos to poll Republican voters.
September 28
Republican presidential debate
September 27

Republican debate highlights and analysis: Candidates squabble in Simi Valley

2024 hopefuls argued over education, spending and border security.
September 27
North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, former Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie, former Governor from South Carolina and UN ambassador Nikki Haley, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, Senator from South Carolina Tim Scott and former Vice President Mike Pence attend the second Republican presidential primary debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif., Sept. 27, 2023.
September 26

How outlier polls happen — and what to do with them

Any one poll is subject to error. That's why we have an average.
September 26
President Joe Biden listens during a meeting on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York City, Sept. 20, 2023.
September 26

The biggest differences between Republican primary voters and the general electorate

We look at some key demographics and beliefs in the Cooperative Election Study.
September 26
Georgians get ready to vote at early voting locations in Fulton County, Ga., on Oct. 22, 2022, for the November midterm elections.
September 25

Seven Republicans appear to have made the second debate

Once again, Trump won’t participate.
September 25
The stage is pictured ahead of the first Republican Presidential primary debate at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Aug. 23, 2023.
September 25

Why our politics are stuck in 2016

The issues being debated in politics are more about identity than economics.
September 25
September 21

We’re hiring a spring intern

Come join 538’s research and copy desks!
September 21
538
September 21

Trump is weaker among independents than Republicans in primary polls

That could matter in New Hampshire.
September 21
Former President Donald Trump listens at Waco Regional Airport, in Waco, Texas, March 25, 2023.
September 20

Would Trump pick a vice president from his primary opponents?

History suggests he won't — and so do their tweets.
September 20
If former President Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, might he pick one of his primary rivals as his running mate?
September 20

Democrats have been winning big in special elections

That could bode well for them in the 2024 election.
September 20
<span style="color: rgb(29, 28, 29); font-family: Slack-Lato, Slack-Fractions, appleLogo, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 248);">Democrats have been overperforming in special elections.</span>
September 19

The latest updates on the 2024 Republican presidential primary

We're tracking polls, endorsements and more, all in one place.
September 19
538's primary dashboard is your one-stop shop for data on the 2024 Republican primary.
September 19

Workers are striking and Americans are into it

Approval of this summer's union actions is high.
September 19
September 18

Welcome to the new 538 website

New articles will appear on ABC News, but our interactives will stay in place.
September 18
538
September 14

The second GOP debate could be smaller, with or without Trump

Six of the eight candidates from the first debate appear set to qualify again.
September 14
Republican presidential candidates, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, U.S. Sen. Tim Scott and North Dakota governor Doug Burgum, are introduced during the first debate of the GOP primary season hosted by FOX News at the Fiserv Forum, Aug. 23, 2023 in Milwaukee.
September 12

Why 'Bidenomics' isn't working for Biden

The economy is improving, but Americans aren't giving Biden credit for it.
September 12
September 11

Ron DeSantis probably didn't turn Florida red

The state was already changing in big ways before he was elected governor.
September 11
ABC News Photo Illustration
September 07

Aging politicians are only going to get more common

And voters will probably keep electing them.
September 07
WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 26: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) arrives to a news conference after a lunch meeting with Senate Republicans U.S. Capitol 26, 2023 in Washington, DC. McConnell froze and stopped talking at the microphones and was escorted back to his office. He later returned to the news conference and answered questions. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
September 06

Should we trust polls campaigns leak to the press?

And what can history tell us about Trump's chances in the Republican primary?
September 06
Politics Podcasat
September 05

Everything you need to know about the special elections in Rhode Island and Utah

The primaries will likely determine these districts’ new representatives.
September 05
Election Update

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